On the heels of a poll showing Bernie with a small lead. We have yet another poll. From Talking Points Memo:
“An Emerson College Polling Society poll released Monday showed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton beating Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) 51 percent to 43 percent in Iowa.
Clinton's eight-point lead is little changed since the previous Emerson poll released ten days ago, which showed Clinton leading Sanders 52 percent to 43 percent. However, polling of Iowa Democrats has shown little consensus, as some recent polls suggest Sanders is leading in the Hawkeye State while others project a neck-and-neck contest.”
What it suggests to me, is that the polls are all over the place. If you are on the ground, you better not put your faith in any poll, or shop around for a poll that puts your preferred candidate ahead. It is going to come down to turnout.
And the questions are all on Bernie’s side. Will younger voters turn out for him? Will students drive home given that snow is on the way? Do they know where/how to caucus? Does he have the organization to pull it off?
If I am a betting person, I’d put my money on Hillary’s supporters turning out. The very large lead she has with older voters and women may well be her campaigns real firewall.
But we’ll see. It all comes down tonight.